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douglas@douglas-hibbs.com |
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Douglas A. Hibbs, Jr. |
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Here
you will find a February
29 2012 update of the implications of my Bread and Peace model of votes for president for the 2012 presidential election.
Since my previous posts on May 28 and October 27 2011 President Obama’s
re-election prospect has improved somewhat, but contrary to results of recent
polling data and betting odds data the Bread
and Peace model implies that Obama’s re-election chances remain
doubtful. You will also find links here to earlier applications of the Bread and Peace model to the
presidential elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008. Here
you will find a parallel February 29 2012 update of my analysis of the
likely partisan division of House seats in the 2012 House election
based on my two-factor Bread and
Incumbency model of on-year House elections. As in previous posts, the
model implies that the chances of the Democrats regaining a House majority in
2012 are nil. Here
you will find a paper on my three-factor Bread, Incumbency and Balance model of mid-term House seat
outcomes featuring a pre-election analysis of the 2010 mid-term contest. |
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I am a career-long academic who retired from a chair as Professor of
Economics at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden at lot
earlier than usual, in February 2005, although I maintained an affiliation
with the university as a senior fellow at the CEFOS research
institute until June 2011. Nowadays I spend my time mainly in academic
research, lecturing and private investment and consulting activity based in
Miami Beach, Florida while maintaining strong ties to Europe. I got my PhD in 1971 just before I turned 27 years old from
the University
of Wisconsin, Madison. But I began working as an Instructor
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1970, about a
year before I finished my doctoral thesis. I sorely needed the income. I left MIT as an Associate Professor in 1978 to take a chair at Harvard University as a Professor of Government. At both
Harvard and MIT I specialized in macro-political economy and applied
multivariate statistics and econometrics. Beginning in the second half of the 1980's I was a Professor of
Economics in Europe - mostly in Sweden. However, I frequently visited other
European and American universities, including the University of
Paris-Sorbonne, the University of Rome-La Sapienza, Central European
University, Prague-Budapest, Aarhus University, the University of Copenhagen,
University of Trondheim (NTNU), the University of California, Los Angeles,
and the University of California, Berkeley. I also was elected
President of the European Public Choice Society for 1998-99. You can find the history of those and other professional activities in
my complete Curriculum Vitae: html pdf Most of my scientific publications on applied statistical analysis,
macro- political economy, cross-national differences in political violence
and instability, various aspects of empirical macroeconomics and labor
economics, economic growth and development and other topics that were
published from the early 1970s up to the present can be downloaded in pdf
format here. ___________________________________________________________________________________ |
At Gothenburg University and other places I taught applied econometrics, macro-political economy and macroeconomic theory to graduate
students. You will find some of my macroeconomic theory lectures here. |
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