douglas@douglas-hibbs.com	Douglas A. Hibbs, Jr.
Here you will find an updated analysis of the implications of my Bread and Peace model of votes for president applied to the upcoming 2012 presidential election. Since my first post on May 28 2011 President Obama’s re-election prospect has deteriorated because of poor economic performance during the last two quarters. At this still early stage (October 27 2011) the notional prediction of President Obama’s two-party vote share based on current conditions is just 44.1%. You will also find links here to earlier analyses of the Bread and Peace model’s implications for the presidential elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008. Here you will find a parallel analysis of the likely partisan division of House seats in the upcoming 2012 House election based on my Bread and Incumbency model of on-year House elections. The model implies that the chances of the Democrats regaining a House majority in 2012 are nil. Here you will find a paper on my three-factor Bread, Incumbency and Balance model of mid-term House election outcomes featuring a pre-election analysis of the 2010 mid-term election.	I am a career-long academic who retired from a chair as Professor of Economics at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden at lot earlier than usual, in February 2005, although I maintained an affiliation with the university as a senior fellow at the CEFOS research institute until June 2011. Nowadays I spend my time mainly in academic research, lecturing and private investment and consulting activity based in Miami Beach, Florida while maintaining strong ties to Europe. I got my PhD in 1971 just before I turned 27 years old from the University of Wisconsin, Madison. But I began working as an Instructor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1970, about a year before I finished my doctoral thesis. I sorely needed the income. I left MIT as an Associate Professor in 1978 to take a chair at Harvard University as a Professor of Government. At both Harvard and MIT I specialized in macro-political economy and applied multivariate statistics and econometrics. Beginning in the second half of the 1980's I was a Professor of Economics in Europe - mostly in Sweden. However, I frequently visited other European and American universities, including the University of Paris-Sorbonne, the University of Rome-La Sapienza, Central European University, Prague-Budapest, Aarhus University, the University of Copenhagen, University of Trondheim (NTNU), the University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of California, Berkeley.  I also was elected President of the European Public Choice Society for 1998-99. You can find the history of those and other professional activities in my complete Curriculum Vitae: html pdf Most of my scientific publications on applied statistical analysis, macro- political economy, various topics in empirical macroeconomics and labor economics, economic growth and development and other topics that were published from the early 1970s up to the present can be downloaded in pdf format here. ___________________________________________________________________________________ CONTACT CURRICULUM VITAE SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS	At Gothenburg University and other places I taught political economy, applied econometrics, macro-political economy and macroeconomic theory to graduate students. You will find some of my macroeconomic theory lectures here.