douglas@douglas-hibbs.com	Douglas A. Hibbs, Jr.
President Obama won 51.9% of the two-party vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Pre-election forecasts from my Bread and Peace model underestimated the President’s vote share by 4-5 percentage points, a large error equivalent to around 2 model standard errors. (published article; unabridged longer version with associated Stata program and data files; lecture slides). Here is my post-mortem discussion of the Bread and Peace model’s 2012 forecast error in perspective model fits for all postwar presidential elections and broader issues concerning explanatory as opposed to poll-based, purely forecasting-oriented models. (graph) Here you will find links here to earlier applications of the Bread and Peace model to the presidential elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008 along with links to my academic writing on economics and elections. The October 26 2012 update of my two-factor Bread and Incumbency model of on-year House elections predicted that the Democrats would win 183 seats in 2012 (graph, lecture slides, web write-up). The model under-estimated the number of House wins by the Democrats (195) by 12 seats, a moderately sized error equivalent to about 1 model standard deviation. Here you will find a paper on my three-factor Bread, Incumbency and Balance model of mid-term House seat outcomes featuring a pre-election analysis of the 2010 mid-term contest.	I am a career-long academic who retired from a chair as Professor of Economics at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden at lot earlier than usual, in February 2005, although I maintained an affiliation with the university as a senior fellow at the CEFOS research institute until June 2011. Nowadays I spend my time mainly in academic research, lecturing and private investment and consulting activity based in Miami Beach, Florida while maintaining strong ties to Europe, particularly Sweden. I got my PhD in 1971 just before I turned 27 years old from the University of Wisconsin, Madison. But I began working as an Instructor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1970, about a year before I finished my doctoral thesis. I sorely needed the income. I left MIT as an Associate Professor in 1978 to take a chair at Harvard University as a Professor of Government. At both Harvard and MIT I specialized in macro-political economy and applied multivariate statistics and econometrics. Beginning in the second half of the 1980's I was a Professor of Economics in Europe - mostly in Sweden. However, I frequently visited other European and American universities, including the University of Paris-Sorbonne, the University of Rome-La Sapienza, Central European University, Prague-Budapest, Aarhus University, the University of Copenhagen, University of Trondheim (NTNU), the University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of California, Berkeley.  I also was elected President of the European Public Choice Society for 1998-99. You can find the history of those and other professional activities in my complete Curriculum Vitae: html pdf Most of my scientific publications on time series statistical analysis, macro- political economy, cross-national differences in political violence and instability, various aspects of empirical macroeconomics, labor economics, economic growth and development and other topics that were published from the early 1970s up to the present can be downloaded in pdf format here. ___________________________________________________________________________________ CONTACT CURRICULUM VITAE SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS	At Gothenburg University and other places I taught applied econometrics, macro-political economy and macroeconomic theory to graduate students. You will find some of my macroeconomic theory lectures here.