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<title>Author template for journal articles</title>
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  <o:Company>SPRINGER VERLAG</o:Company>
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  </m:mathPr>  <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel>਀ 㰀⼀眀㨀圀漀爀搀䐀漀挀甀洀攀渀琀㸀਀㰀⼀砀洀氀㸀㰀℀嬀攀渀搀椀昀崀ⴀⴀ㸀㰀℀ⴀⴀ嬀椀昀 最琀攀 洀猀漀 㤀崀㸀㰀砀洀氀㸀਀ 㰀眀㨀䰀愀琀攀渀琀匀琀礀氀攀猀 䐀攀昀䰀漀挀欀攀搀匀琀愀琀攀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 䐀攀昀唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀਀  䐀攀昀匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 䐀攀昀儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 䰀愀琀攀渀琀匀琀礀氀攀䌀漀甀渀琀㴀∀㈀㜀㘀∀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀一漀爀洀愀氀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 㜀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 㠀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀椀渀最 㤀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀昀漀漀琀渀漀琀攀 琀攀砀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀愀渀渀漀琀愀琀椀漀渀 琀攀砀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀栀攀愀搀攀爀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀昀漀漀琀攀爀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀挀愀瀀琀椀漀渀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀瀀愀最攀 渀甀洀戀攀爀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀攀渀搀渀漀琀攀 琀攀砀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀吀椀琀氀攀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䐀攀昀愀甀氀琀 倀愀爀愀最爀愀瀀栀 䘀漀渀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀匀甀戀琀椀琀氀攀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䠀礀瀀攀爀氀椀渀欀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀匀琀爀漀渀最∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䔀洀瀀栀愀猀椀猀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀一漀爀洀愀氀 ⠀圀攀戀⤀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀愀渀渀漀琀愀琀椀漀渀 猀甀戀樀攀挀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀一漀 䰀椀猀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䈀愀氀氀漀漀渀 吀攀砀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   一愀洀攀㴀∀倀氀愀挀攀栀漀氀搀攀爀 吀攀砀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㄀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀一漀 匀瀀愀挀椀渀最∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䰀椀猀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䜀爀椀搀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㐀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㔀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㘀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㜀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㠀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䐀愀爀欀 䰀椀猀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䰀椀猀琀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䜀爀椀搀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㐀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㔀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㤀㤀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀刀攀瘀椀猀椀漀渀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㌀㐀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀猀琀 倀愀爀愀最爀愀瀀栀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㈀㤀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀儀甀漀琀攀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㌀　∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   一愀洀攀㴀∀䤀渀琀攀渀猀攀 儀甀漀琀攀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㘀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㜀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㠀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㌀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䐀愀爀欀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㄀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㐀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㔀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㘀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㜀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㠀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㌀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䐀愀爀欀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㈀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㐀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㔀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㘀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㜀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㠀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㌀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䐀愀爀欀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 ㌀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㐀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㔀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㘀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㜀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㠀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㌀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䐀愀爀欀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㐀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㐀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㔀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㘀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㜀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㠀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㌀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䐀愀爀欀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㔀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䰀椀最栀琀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㐀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㔀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㘀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䰀椀猀琀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㜀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㄀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㠀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㈀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㘀㤀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䴀攀搀椀甀洀 䜀爀椀搀 ㌀ 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀　∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䐀愀爀欀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㄀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 匀栀愀搀椀渀最 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㈀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䰀椀猀琀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㜀㌀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䌀漀氀漀爀昀甀氀 䜀爀椀搀 䄀挀挀攀渀琀 㘀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㄀㤀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   一愀洀攀㴀∀匀甀戀琀氀攀 䔀洀瀀栀愀猀椀猀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㈀㄀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   一愀洀攀㴀∀䤀渀琀攀渀猀攀 䔀洀瀀栀愀猀椀猀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㌀㄀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   一愀洀攀㴀∀匀甀戀琀氀攀 刀攀昀攀爀攀渀挀攀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㌀㈀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   一愀洀攀㴀∀䤀渀琀攀渀猀攀 刀攀昀攀爀攀渀挀攀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㌀㌀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䈀漀漀欀 吀椀琀氀攀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㌀㜀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀䈀椀戀氀椀漀最爀愀瀀栀礀∀⼀㸀਀  㰀眀㨀䰀猀搀䔀砀挀攀瀀琀椀漀渀 䰀漀挀欀攀搀㴀∀昀愀氀猀攀∀ 倀爀椀漀爀椀琀礀㴀∀㌀㤀∀ 匀攀洀椀䠀椀搀搀攀渀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀਀   唀渀栀椀搀攀圀栀攀渀唀猀攀搀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 儀䘀漀爀洀愀琀㴀∀琀爀甀攀∀ 一愀洀攀㴀∀吀伀䌀 䠀攀愀搀椀渀最∀⼀㸀਀ 㰀⼀眀㨀䰀愀琀攀渀琀匀琀礀氀攀猀㸀਀㰀⼀砀洀氀㸀㰀℀嬀攀渀搀椀昀崀ⴀⴀ㸀਀㰀猀琀礀氀攀㸀਀㰀℀ⴀⴀ਀ ⼀⨀ 䘀漀渀琀 䐀攀昀椀渀椀琀椀漀渀猀 ⨀⼀਀䀀昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀挀攀਀ऀ笀昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀洀椀氀礀㨀䄀爀椀愀氀㬀਀ऀ瀀愀渀漀猀攀ⴀ㄀㨀㈀ ㄀㄀ 㘀 㐀 ㈀ ㈀ ㈀ ㈀ ㈀ 㐀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ挀栀愀爀猀攀琀㨀　㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ最攀渀攀爀椀挀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀洀椀氀礀㨀愀甀琀漀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ瀀椀琀挀栀㨀瘀愀爀椀愀戀氀攀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ猀椀最渀愀琀甀爀攀㨀ⴀ㔀㌀㘀㠀㔀㤀㤀　㔀 ⴀ㄀　㜀㌀㜀㄀㄀　㌀㜀 㤀 　 㔀㄀㄀ 　㬀紀਀䀀昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀挀攀਀ऀ笀昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀洀椀氀礀㨀吀愀栀漀洀愀㬀਀ऀ瀀愀渀漀猀攀ⴀ㄀㨀㈀ ㄀㄀ 㘀 㐀 ㌀ 㔀 㐀 㐀 ㈀ 㐀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ挀栀愀爀猀攀琀㨀　㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ最攀渀攀爀椀挀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀洀椀氀礀㨀愀甀琀漀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ瀀椀琀挀栀㨀瘀愀爀椀愀戀氀攀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ猀椀最渀愀琀甀爀攀㨀ⴀ㔀㈀　　㠀㈀㘀㠀㤀 ⴀ㄀　㜀㌀㜀㄀㜀㄀㔀㜀 㐀㄀ 　 㘀㘀　㐀㜀 　㬀紀਀䀀昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀挀攀਀ऀ笀昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀洀椀氀礀㨀䜀攀漀爀最椀愀㬀਀ऀ瀀愀渀漀猀攀ⴀ㄀㨀㈀ 㐀 㔀 ㈀ 㔀 㐀 㔀 ㈀ ㌀ ㌀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ挀栀愀爀猀攀琀㨀　㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ最攀渀攀爀椀挀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ昀愀洀椀氀礀㨀愀甀琀漀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ瀀椀琀挀栀㨀瘀愀爀椀愀戀氀攀㬀਀ऀ洀猀漀ⴀ昀漀渀琀ⴀ猀椀最渀愀琀甀爀攀㨀㌀ 　 　 　 ㄀ 　㬀紀਀ ⼀⨀ 匀琀礀氀攀 䐀攀昀椀渀椀琀椀漀渀猀 ⨀⼀ 
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<p class=MsoTitle style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-weight:normal'>June 7 2008<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=author><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoTitle align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
style='font-size:16.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial'>Implications of the ‘Bread
and Peace’ Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=keywords align=center style='text-align:center'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal'>(<span
class=GramE>forthcoming</span> in </span><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial'>Public Choice</span></b><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;font-style:normal'>,
October 2008)<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=author><span style='font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=author align=center style='margin-top:0in;text-align:center;
line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Douglas A.
Hibbs, Jr.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=author align=center style='text-align:center'><span class=SpellE><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial'>CEFOS</span></span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial'>, Gothenburg
University, Box 720 40530 Gothenburg, Sweden<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=email align=center style='margin-top:0in;text-align:center'><span
style='font-family:Arial'><a href="mailto:douglas@douglas-hibbs.com">douglas@douglas-hibbs.com</a><span
class=GramE><span style="mso-spacerun:yes">    </span></span><a
href="http://www.douglas-hibbs.com">www.douglas-hibbs.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=abstract style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
Arial'>Abstract<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>

<p class=abstract style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Presidential election outcomes are
well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1)
weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the
term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile
deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy
weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth
probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US
military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental
conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote
share centered on 48.2%. <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><o:p></o:p></b></span></p>

<p class=abstract><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class=heading1 style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><span class=GramE>1<span
style="mso-spacerun:yes">  </span>Background</span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>My analysis of the fundamental
determinants of aggregate presidential voting outcomes and their implications
for the 2008 election draws upon research reported in my earlier Public Choice
article (<a
href="http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/Public%20Choice%202000.pdf">Hibbs
2000</a>)</span><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn1' href="#_edn1" name="_ednref1"
title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[1]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> and in my
unpublished 2007 paper “<a
href="http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/QJPS_2007.pdf">The Economy,
the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election</a>.”</span><a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn2' href="#_edn2" name="_ednref2" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:200%;
font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[2]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>The Bread and Peace
model assumes that postwar American presidential elections should for the most part
be interpreted as a sequence of referendums on the White House party’s economic
record. The incumbent party is punished for poor economic performance and
rewarded for good performance. Economic performance is best measured by a
weighted-average of quarterly growth rates of per capita real disposable
personal income, computed from the election quarter back to the first full
quarter of each presidential term. Growth of per capita real disposable
personal income is the broadest single aggregate measure of changes in voters’
economic well-being in as much as it includes income from all market sources,
is adjusted for inflation, taxes, government transfer payments and population
growth, and tends to move with changes in unemployment.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-tab-count:1'>      </span>The
only additional factor systematically affecting postwar aggregate votes for
president is US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of
American armed forces in foreign conflicts not sanctioned by a formal
Congressional declaration of war – namely the American military interventions
in Korea, Vietnam and most recently Iraq. My research shows that the electoral
penalties exacted by Korea, Vietnam and Iraq fall almost wholly on the party
initiating the commitment of US forces – the Democrats for Korea and Vietnam,
the Republicans for Iraq – and they are proportionate to the cumulative numbers
of American military fatalities, adjusted for population size. Other factors of
course influence presidential voting, sometimes dramatically, but they vary
randomly from election to election. Because such events are idiosyncratic
rather than systematic, they cannot be incorporated to the Bread and Peace <span
class=GramE>model which</span> aims to pin down quantitatively the impact of
persistent fundamental determinants.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-tab-count:1'>      </span>The
Bread and Peace model is designed to <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>explain</i>
presidential election outcomes in terms of objectively measured
political-economic fundamentals rather than to <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:
normal'>predict</i> optimally election results or to track them<i
style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'> statistically</i> after the fact. For those
reasons the model includes no arbitrarily coded dummy, trend, count, or
switching <span class=GramE>variables which have no connection to objectively</span>
measured policies and performance affecting voters.<a style='mso-endnote-id:
edn3' href="#_edn3" name="_ednref3" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[3]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a>
Likewise the Bread and Peace model makes no use of pre-election poll readings
of voter sentiments, preferences and opinions. Attitudinal variables are
themselves affected by objective fundamentals and consequently they supply no
insight into the root causes of voting behavior, even though they may provide
good predictions of voting results.<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn4' href="#_edn4"
name="_ednref4" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[4]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a>
In fact the best predictions of presidential elections (along with other
elections and other events) most likely are obtained from price data at betting
sites like Intrade (www.intrade.com) where punters lay real money on the table.<a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn5' href="#_edn5" name="_ednref5" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[5]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=heading1 style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><span class=GramE>2<span
style="mso-spacerun:yes">  </span>The</span> Bread and Peace Equation</p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
200%;font-family:Arial'>Estimation of the following simple nonlinear equation
yields quantitative estimates of the effects on votes for president of per
capita real income growth and the cumulative number of American military
fatalities in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq:<o:p></o:p></span></p>

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style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
</span></span></span><![endif]><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>Vote</span></i><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> is the percentage
share of the two-party vote for president received by the candidate of the
incumbent party.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:.75in;text-align:justify;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:200%;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list .75in;mso-layout-grid-align:auto;
punctuation-wrap:hanging;text-autospace:ideograph-other'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:
Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
</span></span></span><![endif]><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
200%;font-family:Arial'>R</span></i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
200%;font-family:Arial'> is per capita disposable personal income deflated by
the Consumer Price Index. <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1026"
 type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:34pt;height:18pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image003.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=36 height=20
src="2008Election_files/image004.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1026"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1026"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584731">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span class=GramE>is</span>
the quarter-to-quarter percentage change expressed at annual rates, computed <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1027" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:82pt;height:18pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image005.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=84 height=20
src="2008Election_files/image006.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1027"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1027"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584732">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]-->. The weighted sum of annualized quarterly real income growth
rates <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1028" type="#_x0000_t75"
 style='width:236pt;height:19pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image007.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=238 height=21
src="2008Election_files/image008.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1028"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1028"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584733">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1029" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:53pt;height:20pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image009.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=55 height=22
src="2008Election_files/image010.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1029"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1029"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584734">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>runs from the election
quarter back to the first full quarter of each presidential term.</span><a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn6' href="#_edn6" name="_ednref6" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:200%;
font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:10.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[6]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> The sequence of
over-the-term growth rates is divided through by the sum of the lag weights <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1030" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:30pt;height:36pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image011.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=32 height=38
src="2008Election_files/image012.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1030"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1030"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584735">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--></span><span style='font-family:Arial'><span
style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>so that the coefficient <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1031" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:13pt;height:16pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image013.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=15 height=18
src="2008Election_files/image014.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1031"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1031"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584736">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--></span><span style='font-family:Arial'><span
style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>represents the effect on the incumbent vote
share of each percentage point of weighted-average annualized
quarter-to-quarter real income growth sustained over the presidential term. As
the weighting parameter <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1032"
 type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:11pt;height:14pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image015.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=13 height=16
src="2008Election_files/image016.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1032"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1032"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584737">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>approaches a value of
1.0 the incumbent party vote share is affected by a simple average of per
capita real income growth rates over the whole term; growth at the beginning of
the term has the same electoral impact as growth just before the election. As <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1033" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:11pt;height:14pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image017.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=13 height=16
src="2008Election_files/image018.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1033"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1033"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584738">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>approaches zero only
the election quarter growth rate affects votes for president. Values of <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1034" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:11pt;height:14pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image019.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=13 height=16
src="2008Election_files/image020.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1034"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1034"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584739">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>between 0 and 1
determine the relative political importance of real income growth rates just
before the election as compared to growth rates earlier in the term.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:.75in;text-align:justify;text-indent:-.25in;line-height:200%;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list .75in;mso-layout-grid-align:auto;
punctuation-wrap:hanging;text-autospace:ideograph-other'><![if !supportLists]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:
Symbol;mso-bidi-font-family:Symbol'><span style='mso-list:Ignore'>·<span
style='font:7.0pt "Times New Roman"'>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
</span></span></span><![endif]><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>Fatalities</span></i><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> denotes the
cumulative number of American military fatalities per million US population in
Korea, Vietnam and Iraq during the presidential terms preceding the 1952, 1964,
1968, 1976 and 2004 elections.<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn7' href="#_edn7"
name="_ednref7" title=""><sup><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><sup><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[7]</span></sup><![endif]></span></sup></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
200%;font-family:Arial'>Table 1 reports nonlinear-least-squares estimates of
the Bread and Peace equation for presidential elections spanning 1952-2004. The
model was fit using data on population and disposable personal incomes from the
Bureau of Economic Analysis (<a href="http://www.bea.gov/">http://www.bea.gov</a>)
and consumer prices from the Department of Labor<b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'> </b><span style='color:black'>(<a href="http://www.stats.bls.gov/">http://www.stats.bls.gov</a>)</span>,
along with data on US military fatalities in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq
originating with the US Department of Defense.<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn8'
href="#_edn8" name="_ednref8" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[8]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a>
</span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>According to the
coefficient estimates in Table 1, each percentage point of growth in per capita
real disposable personal income sustained over a presidential term boosts the in-party
candidate’s vote share by about 3.6 percentage points above a benchmark
constant of approximately 46%. The weighting parameter estimate <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1035" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:40pt;height:16pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image021.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=42 height=18
src="2008Election_files/image022.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1035"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1035"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584740">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>implies that the real
income growth rate in the last full quarter before an election (q3 of election
years) has more than three times the electoral impact of income growth in the
first full quarter of the term <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1036"
 type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:91pt;height:22pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image023.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=93 height=24
src="2008Election_files/image024.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1036"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1036"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584741">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]-->. The fatalities coefficient estimate means that each 100 US
military fatalities per million population owing to hostile deployments of US
forces in unprovoked wars depresses the incumbent vote by about 5 percentage
points.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%;mso-layout-grid-align:auto;punctuation-wrap:
hanging;text-autospace:ideograph-other'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<div align=center>

<table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0
 style='border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;
 mso-yfti-tbllook:480;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 0in;mso-border-insideh:.5pt solid windowtext;
 mso-border-insidev:.5pt solid windowtext'>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'>
  <td width=391 colspan=4 valign=top style='width:390.5pt;border:none;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=tablelegend style='margin-top:0in;line-height:normal'><b
  style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
  Arial'>Table 1. Bread and Peace Equation Estimates<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'>
  <td width=135 valign=top style='width:135.0pt;border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=99 valign=top style='width:99.0pt;border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=75 valign=top style='width:75.45pt;border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=top style='border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'>
  <td width=135 valign=top style='width:135.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Dependent variable: incumbent two-party vote share (%)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=99 valign=top style='width:99.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=75 valign=top style='width:75.45pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>N = 14<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">  </span>elections <o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>1952 – 2004<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=top style='border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'>
  <td width=135 valign=top style='width:135.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=99 valign=top style='width:99.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1037" type="#_x0000_t75"
   style='width:15pt;height:15pt' o:ole="">
   <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image025.wmz" o:title=""/>
  </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=17 height=17
  src="2008Election_files/image026.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1037"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
   <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1037"
    DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584742">
   </o:OLEObject>
  </xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>= .87<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=75 valign=top style='width:75.45pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Adj <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1038"
   type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:15pt;height:15pt' o:ole="">
   <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image027.wmz" o:title=""/>
  </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=17 height=17
  src="2008Election_files/image028.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1038"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
   <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1038"
    DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584743">
   </o:OLEObject>
  </xml><![endif]--><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>=<span class=GramE>.83</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=top style='border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Root MSE =2.38<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'>
  <td width=135 valign=top style='width:135.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=99 valign=top style='width:99.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><u><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p><span style='text-decoration:
   none'>&nbsp;</span></o:p></span></u></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><u><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>coefficient estimate <o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
  </td>
  <td width=75 valign=top style='width:75.45pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><u><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>std. error<o:p></o:p></span></u></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=top style='border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><u><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>p-value</span></u><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'>
  <td width=135 valign=top style='width:135.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Constant <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1039"
   type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:20pt;height:18pt' o:ole="">
   <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image029.wmz" o:title=""/>
  </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=22 height=20
  src="2008Election_files/image030.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1039"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
   <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1039"
    DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584744">
   </o:OLEObject>
  </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=99 valign=top style='width:99.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=75 valign=top style='width:75.45pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.22<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=top style='border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>.000<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6'>
  <td width=135 valign=top style='width:135.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Weighted-average<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span class=GramE><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>per</span></span><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'> capita real disposable personal
  income growth rate, % <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1040"
   type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:22pt;height:18pt' o:ole="">
   <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image031.wmz" o:title=""/>
  </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=24 height=20
  src="2008Election_files/image032.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1040"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
   <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1040"
    DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584745">
   </o:OLEObject>
  </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=99 valign=top style='width:99.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.55<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=75 valign=top style='width:75.45pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.605<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=top style='border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>.000<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:7'>
  <td width=135 valign=top style='width:135.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Lag weight <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1041"
   type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:19pt;height:18pt' o:ole="">
   <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image033.wmz" o:title=""/>
  </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=21 height=20
  src="2008Election_files/image034.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1041"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
   <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1041"
    DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584746">
   </o:OLEObject>
  </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=99 valign=top style='width:99.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.909<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=75 valign=top style='width:75.45pt;border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.057<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=top style='border:none;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>.000<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:8;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'>
  <td width=135 valign=top style='width:135.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>US military fatalities per million population <sub><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
   id="_x0000_i1042" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:24pt;height:18pt' o:ole="">
   <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image035.wmz" o:title=""/>
  </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=26 height=20
  src="2008Election_files/image036.png" v:shapes="_x0000_i1042"><![endif]></sub><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
   <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1042"
    DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584747">
   </o:OLEObject>
  </xml><![endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=99 valign=top style='width:99.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.052<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=75 valign=top style='width:75.45pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.013<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td valign=top style='border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 0in 0in 0in'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>.002<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
</table>

</div>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:175%'><span style='font-family:
Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>The pronounced
connection of two-party vote shares received by incumbent party candidates to
weighted-average per capita real income growth rates over the term at postwar elections
1952-2004 is graphed in Figure 1. (Appendix Table A1 shows more statistics for
each election.) Voting outcomes in 1952 and 1968 exhibit the biggest deviations
from the regression prediction line – they register the effects of the second
fundamental determinant of presidential voting: American military fatalities in
unprovoked foreign wars. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>High cumulative US
military fatalities in Korea at the time of the 1952 election (29,260 or 190
per million population) and in Vietnam at the 1968 election (28,900 or 146 per
million population) cost candidates of the incumbent Democratic party dearly,
most likely causing Adlai Stevenson’s loss to Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and
almost certainly causing Hubert Humphrey’s loss to Richard Nixon in 1968.
Absent America’s interventions in the Korean and Vietnamese civil wars, the
strong real income growth record prior to those elections easily should have
kept the Democrats in the White House. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>In principle,
military fatalities due to discretionary American involvement in foreign
conflicts were also relevant to the 1964, 1976 and 2004 election contests, but
the impact on aggregate votes was negligible because the fatality numbers were
small. At the 2004 election, for example, US military fatalities in Iraq stood
at 1,130 (3.86 per million population) – too few to exert great negative effect
on the vote for Bush. However by the time of the 2008 election US military
fatalities will have quadrupled. Consequently, as I show ahead, Iraq will play
a more important role in 2008 than in 2004.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial;
mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_0"
 o:spid="_x0000_i1043" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="Fig1.wmf" style='width:487pt;
 height:338pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'>
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image037.emz" o:title="Fig1"/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=489 height=340
src="2008Election_files/image038.png" alt=Fig1.wmf v:shapes="Picture_x0020_0"><![endif]></span></b><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
200%;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>

<p class=heading1 style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'>3. <a name="OLE_LINK2"></a><a name="OLE_LINK1"><span
style='mso-bookmark:OLE_LINK2'><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>The
Economy, Iraq and the 2008 Election</span></a></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
200%;font-family:Arial'>Republican fortunes in 2008 will depend on the severity
of the US economic contraction now underway and the accumulation of US military
fatalities in Iraq. Over the first full twelve quarters of President Bush’s
second term (2005q2 – 2008q1) the weighted-average growth rate of per capita
real disposable personal income was 1.04%,<span class=MsoEndnoteReference> </span>which
although significantly below the postwar average of 1.8% is within striking
distance of the performance necessary to keep the incumbent party in the White
House. According to the Bread and Peace model other things being equal the
incumbent party vote share reaches the break-even point of 50% at a weighted-average
growth rate of just 1.07%.<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn9' href="#_edn9"
name="_ednref9" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[9]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a>
However in 2008 “other things” are not going to be equal. At the beginning of
2008 the US economy weakened, perhaps drifting into recession.<a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn10' href="#_edn10" name="_ednref10" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[10]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a>
And at June 1 2008 cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq had reached 4,084.
Both developments hurt Republican chances.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=heading2 style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'>3.1<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> 
</span>Growth of Per Capita Real Disposable Personal Income</p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
200%;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-tab-count:1'>      </span>Figure 2
shows the evolution of weighted-average growth of real incomes over the term
along with various scenarios for real income growth during the last three
quarters of 2008. Fairly pessimistic scenarios are probable, notwithstanding
the fiscal stimulus package passed by congress and signed into law by President
Bush on February 13 2008 that will raise aggregate disposable income by about
1% in the half-year before the election. The relative sizes of the plot points
for hypothetical 2008 growth rates reflect my reading of the tea leaves. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>As indicated by Figure 2, I think
real income growth rates near the postwar average of 1.8% are unlikely. 2008q2-2008q4
growth rates will probably be in the vicinity of 0%, which at Election Day
would yield an over the term weighted-average real growth performance in the
vicinity of 0.75%. According to the Bread and Peace model such a real income
growth record by itself implies a relatively narrow victory for the out-party
Democratic candidate (presumptively Barack Obama) over the incumbent-party
Republican candidate (presumptively John McCain) by a margin of approximately 2
percentage points: 51% to 49%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial;
mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_1"
 o:spid="_x0000_i1044" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="Fig2.wmf" style='width:488pt;
 height:354pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'>
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image039.emz" o:title="Fig2"/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=490 height=356
src="2008Election_files/image040.png" alt=Fig2.wmf v:shapes="Picture_x0020_1"><![endif]></span></b><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
200%;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></b></p>

<p class=heading2 style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'>3.2<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">  </span>US
Military Fatalities in Iraq</p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>Time paths of US military fatalities
in Iraq, quarter-by-quarter and cumulatively, are graphed in Figure 3. During
the second half of 2007 the fatality rate turned down, falling to about 100 per
quarter at the end of 2007 from rates of 200 to 300 per quarter in prior years.
Contrary to some claims, it is doubtful that the decline in American fatalities
has much to do with the US “surge” launched on January 10 2007, which added
approximately 30,000 US troops to the effort to pacify a conflict-plagued
country of nearly 30 millions. Instead, the Mahdi Army cease fire ordered by
the Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr on August 29 2007, along with the incorporation
of some 80,000 or more formerly insurgent Sunni fighters to the US pacification
effort (at the bargain price of $10 per man per day plus new weaponry) are the
main direct reasons for the big improvement in the rate at which US soldiers
are being killed.<a style='mso-endnote-id:edn11' href="#_edn11" name="_ednref11"
title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='mso-special-character:
footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[11]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a> Both Shia and Sunni (and
Kurdish) forces appear to be biding their time and building their strength in
preparation for the civil war that many informed observers believe will
inevitably break out when the US withdraws from Iraq.<a style='mso-endnote-id:
edn12' href="#_edn12" name="_ednref12" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[12]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>The time paths of
projected fatalities during last three quarters of 2008 depicted in Figure 3
are based on the plausible (or perhaps merely the hopeful) assumptions that the
Mahdi Army continues to stand down and that Sunni fighters remain in
cooperative liaison with US forces. Under those assumptions cumulative US
military fatalities will increase from the June 1 2008 level of 4,084 to about
4,300 at the time of the 2008 election.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%;
tab-stops:269.2pt'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:
Arial;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="Picture_x0020_2" o:spid="_x0000_i1045" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="Fig3_2axis.wmf"
 style='width:488pt;height:354pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'>
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image041.emz" o:title="Fig3_2axis"/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=490 height=356
src="2008Election_files/image042.png" alt="Fig3_2axis.wmf" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_2"><![endif]></span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=heading1 style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'>4.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> 
</span>2008 Vote Predictions from Political-Economic Fundamentals</p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>Table 2 shows the upshot for the
presidential election result of past trends and likely developments during 2008
in real income growth and US military fatalities. The first row of the Table
reports calculations of expected votes at various 2008 real income growth rates
under the counterfactual situation of zero US military fatalities in Iraq
(equivalent to a ‘no invasion’ scenario). The counterfactual reveals the Iraq
war’s estimated quantitative impact on 2008 votes for president: Cumulative
fatalities in the vicinity of 4,300 – the projected magnitude around Election
Day – depress the Republican vote by approximately three-quarters of a
percentage point compared to the counterfactual benchmark of zero fatalities.
An impact that size would be decisive in an election that was close on economic
grounds alone. But with US fatalities in Iraq running above 4,000, the vote projections
in Table 2 indicate that 2008q2-2008q4 real income growth rates need to exceed
2% per annum for the Republicans to have a decent chance of holding the
presidency. As already mentioned, growth that high seems unlikely in what shows
signs of being a year of at least mild recession. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>The shaded region
of the Table identifies the most probable combinations of cumulative US
fatalities in Iraq and weighted-average real income growth. Those
political-economic fundamentals imply an expected Republican two-party vote
share centered on 48.2%. Barring unforeseen political shocks favoring the
Republican candidate (presumptively John McCain), the Democratic standard
bearer (presumptively Barack Obama) ought to win the 2008 presidential election
by a margin in the neighborhood of 3.6 percentage points.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<div align=center>

<table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0
 style='border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:solid windowtext 1.5pt;
 mso-yfti-tbllook:480;mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;mso-border-insideh:
 .5pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insidev:.5pt solid windowtext'>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'>
  <td width=366 colspan=8 valign=top style='width:365.8pt;border:none;
  border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=tablelegend style='margin-top:0in;line-height:normal'><b
  style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
  Arial'>Table 2.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">  </span>Expected Two-Party
  Vote Shares for the Republican Candidate under Various Assumptions about US
  Military Fatalities in Iraq and Real Income Growth Rates in 2008</span></b><span
  style='font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><b
  style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
  Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=222 colspan=6 valign=top style='width:221.8pt;border:none;
  mso-border-top-alt:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Per capita real income
  growth rates 2008q2 - 2008q4 (resulting weighted-average growth over the
  term)</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><b
  style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
  Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(0.22)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(0.49)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(0.76)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>+1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(1.03)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>+2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(1.30)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'>
  <td width=72 rowspan=7 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;padding:
  0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Cumulative US
  military fatalities at 2008q4<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(per million population)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-right:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0 (0)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>47.0%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>48.0%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>48.9%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.9%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.8%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-right:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-right:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4,100 (13.4)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46.3%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>47.3%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>48.2%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.2%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.1%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:7'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-right:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:8'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-right:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4,300 (14.0)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46.3%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>47.2%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><b
  style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:
  Arial'>48.2%<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.2%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.1%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:9'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-right:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;background:#D9D9D9;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:10'>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-right:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5,000 (16.3)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46.2%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>47.1%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>48.1%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.0%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.0%<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:11;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'>
  <td width=72 style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width=72 valign=top style='width:1.0in;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=12 valign=top style='width:11.8pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width=42 valign=top style='width:42.0pt;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  mso-border-bottom-alt:solid windowtext .5pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
</table>

</div>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=heading1 style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'>5.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> 
</span>Qualifications</p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>The Bread and Peace model aims to
quantify the effects of fundamental determinants of presidential voting outcomes.
However every election is affected by random, idiosyncratic factors which at
times are important enough to obscure the persistent influence of fundamentals.
Indeed idiosyncratic events contribute a lot of the fun to political affairs
and their unexpected appearance and impact from one election to the next are
why many of us follow election year developments so carefully in the media.
Some obvious idiosyncrasies in the 2008 political drama pertain to the race,
age and health of the contenders.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>In 2008 the
Democratic nominee for president presumptively will be an African-American man
– a first in American major party politics (as would the nomination of Hillary
Clinton). Most of us would like to think that the US has matured enough that
candidate race (or gender) as such are of no electoral consequence. Most of us
are also realistic enough to know that this untested proposition is at best
uncertain and, in fact, is probably wrong. Pure race (or gender) effects will
cut both ways in 2008 but on balance they likely will hurt the Democratic Party
candidate – more so Obama (the presumptive nominee)<a style='mso-endnote-id:
edn13' href="#_edn13" name="_ednref13" title=""><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[13]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></a>
than Clinton if one believes, as I do, that nowadays race prejudice
substantially exceeds gender bias among US voters with a taste for
discrimination.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:6.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:6.0pt;
margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;text-indent:.25in;line-height:200%'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'>On the Republican
side are the issues of John McCain’s age and health. Should he win election,
McCain (b. August 29, 1936) would be the oldest first term president ever – a
fact that could begin to weigh more heavily on voters than earlier as
attentions get focused after the party conventions. Another episode of melanoma
(McCain is known to have had three non-metastatic bouts so far) would also be a
significant negative. A diagnosis of metastatic melanoma, which would be
impossible to keep secret, would devastate McCain’s chances producing a much
lower Republican vote share than expected from fundamental factors.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:175%;font-family:Arial'>References<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial'>Bartels, L. (1997). Correspondence: econometrics and
elections. <span style='mso-bidi-font-style:italic'>Journal of Economic<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-style:italic'>Perspectives, </span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:175%;font-family:Arial'>11, 195-97.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'>Erikson, R.S. Wlezien, C.
(2008).<b> </b></span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:175%;
font-family:Arial'>Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election
Predictors? <span style='mso-bidi-font-style:italic'>Public Opinion Quarterly,
online (May 2).</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial'>Hibbs, D.A. (1982). <a
href="http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/APQ%201982.pdf">President
Reagan’s Mandate From the 1980 Elections: A Shift to the Right?</a> <span
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:bold;mso-bidi-font-style:italic'>American Politics
Quarterly</span>, 10(October), 387-420.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial'>Hibbs, D.A. (2000). <a
href="http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/Public%20Choice%202000.pdf"><span
class=GramE>Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections</span></a><span
class=GramE>.</span> <span style='mso-bidi-font-weight:bold;mso-bidi-font-style:
italic'>Public Choice</span>, 104(1-2), 149-180.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial'>Hibbs, D.A. (2006). <a
href="http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/Hibbs-VotingAndTheMacroeconomy2006-09-19.pdf">Voting
and the Macroeconomy</a>. In D. Wittman and B. Weingast<span style='mso-bidi-font-style:
italic'> (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy (pp.565-586).</span>
Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial'>International Institute for Strategic Studies [IISS]
(2008). Iraq After the Surge, Strategic Comments, 14(2), 1-2.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-font-style:italic'>Nordhaus, W. (2006). <span
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><a
href="http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/Nordhaus_QJPS_2006.pdf">Electoral
Victory and Statistical Defeat? Economics, Politics, and the 2004 Presidential
Election</a>. </span>Quarterly Journal of Political Science</span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:175%;font-family:Arial'>, 1, 313–322.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
175%;font-family:Arial'>Powers, T. (2008). Iraq: Will We Ever Get Out? New York
Review of Books, 55(9), 13-16.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%'><span lang=SV style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:175%;font-family:Arial;mso-ansi-language:SV'>Wlezien, C., Erikson
R.S. (2004). </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:175%;font-family:
Arial'>The Fundamentals, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote. <span
style='mso-bidi-font-style:italic'>PS: Political Science and Politics,</span>
37(4), 747-751.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:4.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:4.0pt;
margin-left:0in;line-height:175%;mso-layout-grid-align:auto;punctuation-wrap:
hanging;text-autospace:ideograph-other'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
line-height:175%;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal;mso-layout-grid-align:auto;
punctuation-wrap:hanging;text-autospace:ideograph-other'><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=reference><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="Picture_x0020_27" o:spid="_x0000_i1046" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="x"
 style='width:1pt;height:4pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'>
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image043.png" o:title="x"/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=3 height=6
src="2008Election_files/image044.png" alt=x v:shapes="Picture_x0020_27"><![endif]></span>Appendix</p>

<p class=figlegend style='margin-top:0in;line-height:normal'><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt'>Table
A1.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">  </span>Votes, Predictions and Effects of
Fundamental Determinants in Presidential Elections</span></b><span
style='font-size:11.0pt'> (Fits and effects computed from the Bread and Peace
equation estimates in Table 1)<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=figlegend style='margin-top:0in;line-height:normal'><span
style='font-size:9.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=0 cellpadding=0 width="100%"
 style='width:100.0%;border-collapse:collapse;mso-yfti-tbllook:480;mso-padding-alt:
 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>In-party v. out-party
  candidate<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Election year<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>% of two-party vote
  for incumbent party candidate<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Predicted % vote<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Prediction error<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Weighted-average per capita
  real income growth, %<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Real income growth
  effect on % vote<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Cumulative US
  military fatalities (per million population)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  border-left:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;border-right:none;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Fatalities effect on
  % vote<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:1'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;border:none;mso-border-top-alt:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
  normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:2'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Stevenson v. Eisenhower<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1952<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>44.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>44.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8.5<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>29,260<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(190.4)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-10.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:3'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Eisenhower v. Stevenson<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1956<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>57.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>56.5<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:4'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Nixon v. Kennedy<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1960<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:5'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Johnson v. Goldwater<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1964<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>61.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>61.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>218<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(0.9)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:6'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Humphrey v. Nixon<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1968<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10.7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>28,896<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(145.6)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-7.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:7'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Nixon v. McGovern<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1972<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>61.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>59.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>NA<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:8'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Ford v. Carter<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1976<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>414<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(2.1)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:9'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Carter v. Reagan<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1980<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>44.7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>44.7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.5<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:10'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Reagan v. Mondale<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1984<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>59.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>60.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:11'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>GHW Bush v. Dukakis<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1988<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>53.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>54.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:12'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>GHW Bush v. Clinton<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1992<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46.5<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>47.7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.1<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:13'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Clinton v. Dole<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1996<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>54.7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>49.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3.7<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:14'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>Gore v. GW Bush<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2000<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>54.6<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-4.3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8.4<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>0<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
 <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:15;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.26%;border:none;border-bottom:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'>GW Bush v. Kerry<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
  font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="9%" valign=top style='width:9.66%;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2004<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.92%;border:none;border-bottom:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>51.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.96%;border:none;border-bottom:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>52.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.6%;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-1.5<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="11%" valign=top style='width:11.5%;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1.9<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="8%" valign=top style='width:8.9%;border:none;border-bottom:solid windowtext 1.0pt;
  padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6.8<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="12%" valign=top style='width:12.68%;border:none;border-bottom:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1,130<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>(3.9)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
  <td width="10%" valign=top style='width:10.52%;border:none;border-bottom:
  solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
  <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center;line-height:normal'><span
  style='font-size:9.0pt;font-family:Arial'>-0.2<o:p></o:p></span></p>
  </td>
 </tr>
</table>

<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Here are Stata <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><a
href="http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/PC-2008-06-01-documentation.do"><span
style='text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'>program</span></a></b> and <b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><a
href="http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/PC-2008-06-01-documentation.dta"><span
style='text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'>data</span></a></b> files for
statistical results in this essay.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>Here is a <b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><a
href="http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/PublicChoice2008.pdf"><span
class=SpellE><span style='text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'>pdf</span></span><span
style='text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'> file</span></a></b> of this
essay as published in September <span class=GramE>2008 which</span> is better
suited to printing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:normal'><span style='font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote-list'><![if !supportEndnotes]><br clear=all>

<hr align=left size=1 width="33%">

<![endif]>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn1>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn1' href="#_ednref1" name="_edn1" title=""><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[1]</span><![endif]></span></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> The basic functional form of the economic
factor in the Bread and Peace equation was first proposed in my earlier article
(<a href="http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/APQ%201982.pdf">Hibbs 1982</a>).
I review the large literature on macroeconomic conditions and voting in (<a
href="http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/Hibbs-VotingAndTheMacroeconomy2006-09-19.pdf">Hibbs
2006</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn2>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn2' href="#_ednref2" name="_edn2" title=""><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[2]</span><![endif]></span></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> The 2007 paper was rejected by the
Quarterly Journal of Political Science as “unnecessarily acerbic” in its
criticism of an article by William Nordhaus published in the same journal
(Nordhaus 2006 <a
href="http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/Nordhaus_QJPS_2006.pdf">http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/Nordhaus_QJPS_2006.pdf</a>)
that contrasted my model to various equations proposed by Nordhaus’ Yale
economics department colleague Ray Fair (<a
href="http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2008/index2.htm">http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2008/index2.htm</a>).
See the QJPS rejection history at <a
href="http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/QJPS_History.pdf">http://douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/QJPS_History.pdf</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn3>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn3'
href="#_ednref3" name="_edn3" title=""><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[3]</span><![endif]></span></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> A prominent example is the equation
currently favored by Ray Fair (<a
href="http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/RAYFAIR/PDF/2006CHTM.HTM">http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/RAYFAIR/PDF/2006CHTM.HTM</a>)
– five of the seven regressors in Fair’s equation are dummies, trends or
counts. See (Bartels 1997) for a critical discussion of the ad-hoc use of such
variables.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn4>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn4'
href="#_ednref4" name="_edn4" title=""><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:
Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;
mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[4]</span><![endif]></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:
Arial'> Leading examples of presidential election prediction equations using attitudinal
variables are reviewed by (Wlezien and Erikson 2004).<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn5>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn5'
href="#_ednref5" name="_edn5" title=""><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[5]</span><![endif]></span></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> According to (Erikson and Wlezien 2008)
poll data on average outperform the Iowa Electronic Market betting data in
forecasting presidential election outcomes between 1988 and 2004. The IEM
market however is a university run operation with constrained betting (the
limit is currently five hundred dollars per individual) and quite thin trading
by comparison to commercial enterprises like Intrade.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn6>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn6' href="#_ednref6" name="_edn6" title=""><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[6]</span><![endif]></span></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> At the election quarter the weight </span><sub><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600"
 o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f"
 stroked="f">
 <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/>
 <v:formulas>
  <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"/>
  <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"/>
  <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"/>
  <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"/>
  <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"/>
  <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"/>
  <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/>
  <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"/>
  <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"/>
  <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"/>
  <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"/>
  <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"/>
 </v:formulas>
 <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"/>
 <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"/>
</v:shapetype><v:shape id="_x0000_i1048" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:61pt;
 height:21pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image045.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1048"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584748">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--></span></sub><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;
font-family:Arial'><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>is scaled down to 1/3
because of the within-quarter date of presidential elections (the first Tuesday
following the first Monday of November).<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn7>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;text-align:justify;line-height:200%'><a
style='mso-endnote-id:edn7' href="#_ednref7" name="_edn7" title=""><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[7]</span><![endif]></span></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> Prior to 2004 my periodic applications of
the Bread and Peace model did not scale cumulative US military fatalities to
population. Yet the US had 158 million inhabitants at the time of the 1952
election and will have approximately 306 million at the 2008 election, so
scaling fatalities to population makes good sense even though the quantitative
effects implied by the scaled and un-scaled equations are very similar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn8>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn8'
href="#_ednref8" name="_edn8" title=""><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:
AR-SA'>[8]</span><![endif]></span></span></a><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> The BEA income data are from the May 29
2008 revision of the National Income and Product Accounts – the 2008q4 data are
preliminary and are subject to revision (perhaps substantial) later. Military
fatalities in Iraq are from <a href="http://www.icasualties.org/oif">http://www.icasualties.org/oif</a>.
Data on fatalities in Korea and Vietnam were obtained by the author from the
National Defense University Library in Carlyle Pennsylvania. Stata program and
data files for results in this article are available at <a
href="http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/hibbs_downloadable.mht">http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/HibbsArticles/hibbs_downloadable.mht</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn9>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn9'
href="#_ednref9" name="_edn9" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[9]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> The estimates in
Table 1 imply that </span><sub><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1053"
 type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:109pt;height:17pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image046.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1053"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584749">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--></span></sub><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;
font-family:Arial'><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>at</span><sub><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1054" type="#_x0000_t75"
 style='width:54pt;height:15pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image047.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1054"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584750">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--></span></sub><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;
font-family:Arial'>, where </span><sub><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1055" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:27pt;height:15pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image048.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1055"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584751">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--></span></sub><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;
font-family:Arial'><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>denotes the over the
term weighted-average growth rate </span><sub><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:200%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape
 id="_x0000_i1056" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:142pt;height:40pt' o:ole="">
 <v:imagedata src="2008Election_files/image049.wmz" o:title=""/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
 <o:OLEObject Type="Embed" ProgID="Equation.DSMT4" ShapeID="_x0000_i1056"
  DrawAspect="Content" ObjectID="_1243584752">
 </o:OLEObject>
</xml><![endif]--></span></sub><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;
font-family:Arial'>.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn10>

<p style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:10.0pt;margin-left:
0in;line-height:200%;background:white'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn10'
href="#_ednref10" name="_edn10" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
lang=SV style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span lang=SV style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
150%;font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
SV;mso-fareast-language:SV;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[10]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'> US “recessions” are designated semi- officially by the Business Cycle Dating
Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Search (<a
href="http://www.nber.org/cycles.html">http://www.nber.org/cycles.html</a>).
Recession calls are of course ex-post, usually coming more than a half year
after recessions begin. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn11>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn11'
href="#_ednref11" name="_edn11" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[11]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> (IISS 2008)
describes the various factors at work from a point of view sympathetic to the
American effort in Iraq that gives the ‘surge’ a lot more (indirect) credit
than I do in reducing violence in Iraq.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn12>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn12'
href="#_ednref12" name="_edn12" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[12]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> The US has in
effect assembled and armed a powerful sectarian force strengthening the Sunni
side in the likely event of renewed civil war. See (Powers 2008) for an
insightful review of this and related developments.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

<div style='mso-element:endnote' id=edn13>

<p class=MsoEndnoteText style='margin-top:10.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:
10.0pt;margin-left:0in;line-height:200%'><a style='mso-endnote-id:edn13'
href="#_ednref13" name="_edn13" title=""><span class=MsoEndnoteReference><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'><span
style='mso-special-character:footnote'><![if !supportFootnotes]><span
class=MsoEndnoteReference><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:150%;
font-family:Arial;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:DE;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'>[13]</span></span><![endif]></span></span></span></a><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:200%;font-family:Arial'> Hillary Clinton
formally conceded the nomination contest and endorsed Barack Obama on June 7
2008, a few minutes before I finished editing this article.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

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