October 31 2008

The Bread and Peace model is:

where* Vote* is the
percentage share of the two-party vote for president received by the candidate
of the incumbent party; _{} is the annualized
quarter-to-quarter percentage rate of change of per capita real disposable
personal income; *Fatalities* denotes
the cumulative number of American military fatalities per million US population
in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq during the presidential terms preceding the 1952,
1964, 1968, 1976 and 2004 elections. (See Hibbs 2004 and Hibbs 2008
for details.) The coefficient estimates are , , , and with and RMSE=2.37.

At Election Day US military *Fatalities* in Iraq will be about 4,200
or 13.8 per million US population. Preliminary data for
personal income in the third quarter of 2008, along with revisions to data for
some earlier quarters, were released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(www.bea.gov) on October 30 2008. Those data
along with my (perhaps optimistic) assumption that per capita real disposable
personal income growth in 2008q4 will be in the 0 to -1 percent per annum range
imply that weighted-average real income growth over the incumbent term, , will be in the vicinity of 0.215.

It follows that the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share in 2008 of about 46.25%: