/*
DOUGLAS HIBBS
THE FOLLOWING STATA "DO" FILE THAT GENERATES ALL RESULS REPORTED IN MY FEBRUARY 29 2012 WEB POST ON THE 
TWO-FACTOR 'BREAD AND INCUMBENCY' MODEL'S IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PARTISAN DIVISION OF HOUSE SEATS IN THE 2012 ELECTION.
*/

version 11.2

cd "/Users/douglashibbs/Documents/myfiles2011/presvoteUS-2011-2008/PresElection2012"
use hibbs-house-election2012-webpost-29February2012.dta

describe, fullnames
sort  qdates

tsset qdates, quarterly

gen cpi = cpi_u_8284
gen r = dpi_pc/(cpi/100)
gen lnr = log(r)
gen dlnr = (lnr-L1.lnr)*400

gen seats_inc = house_seat_dem*dem_inc+ house_seat_rep*rep_inc
gen L8seats_inc = L8.house_seat_dem*dem_inc+ L8.house_seat_rep*rep_inc
replace L8seats_inc = 0 if L8seats_inc==.
 
* ON-YEAR TWO-FACTOR 'BREAD AND INCUMBENCY' HOUSE SEATS MODEL, 1952-2008 N=15

nl ( seats_inc = {b0} + {bdlnr}*((L1.dlnr ///
+{g}*L2.dlnr+{g}^2*L3.dlnr+{g}^3*L4.dlnr+{g}^4*L5.dlnr ///
+{g}^5*L6.dlnr +{g}^6*L7.dlnr) / (1.0+{g} ///
+{g}^2+{g}^3+{g}^4+{g}^5+{g}^6) )    ///
+ {bL8seats_inc}*(L8seats_inc) )  ///
if preselectq==1,variables(seats_inc dlnr L8seats_inc ) ///
initial(b0 45 g 0.95 bdlnr 4  bL8seats_inc 0.5 ) ///
iterate(500) nolog

predict shat if e(sample), yhat
predict serror if e(sample), residual

matrix list e(b)
matrix b_2F= e(b)


gen b0_2F = b_2F[1,1]
display b0_2F

gen bdlnr_2F = b_2F[1,2]
display bdlnr_2F

gen g_2F =  b_2F[1,3]
display g_2F

gen bL8seats_2F =  b_2F[1,4]
display bL8seats_2F


* WEIGHTED-AVG PER CAPITA REAL INCOME GROWTH SO FAR, 2011q1 - 2011q4:

gen Rbar_2011q4 = ((dlnr+g_2F*L1.dlnr+g_2F^2*L2.dlnr+g_2F^3*L3.dlnr) / (1.0+g_2F+g_2F^2+g_2F^3) )   if qcount==260

list qcount qdates Rbar_2011q4 if qcount==260

* PER CAPITA REAL INCOME DATA FOR 2012 NOTIONAL PREDICTION GRAPH:

gen Rbar_2F = .
replace Rbar_2F =  -.5561609 if qcount==264
gen shat_2F = b0_2F + bdlnr_2F*Rbar_2F+bL8seats_2F*193

list Rbar_2F shat_2F if qcount==264

* GRAPH OF ACTUAL AND FITTED VALUES SHOWING NOTIONAL 2012 PREDICTION USING BEA 2012-02-29 DATA THROUGH 2011:Q4

graph twoway connected seats_inc shat shat_2F year if preselectq==1,   /// 
title("{bf:Bread and Incumbency Voting in On-Year House Elections, 1952-2012}", span tstyle(size(medlarge)) ) ///
subtitle("{bf:2012 prediction based on conditions through 2011:q4}" " ",tstyle(size(medsmall)) )   ///
ylabel(, grid gstyle(dot) glwidth(medthin)  )  ///
ytitle("Seats won by the president's party (#)" , ///
size(medsmall) margin(small)  ) ylabel(140 (30) 300) ///
xtitle("Year", size(medsmall) margin(small) ) ///
tlabel(1952 (8) 2012)    ///
graphregion(color(white)) msize(large large large) mcolor(black black red) ///
msymbol(circle triangle triangle) lpattern(solid _ _) lcolor(black black red) ///
lwidth(medthin medthin)  ///
yline(218, lpattern(solid) lwidth(thick) lcolor(gray)  ) ///
ttext(222 1996 "Majority (218 seats)" " ", placement(we) size(small) ) ///
legend(on label(1 "Actual") size(small) label(2 "Fitted")  label(3 "2012 Notional Prediction 177 Seats") position(5)  )   ///
caption("{it:Source: www.douglas-hibbs.com February 29 2012}", size(small) justification(left) )

/* COMPUTATIONS FOR TABLE OF POTENTIAL HOUSE SEAT OUTCOMES GIVEN BEA 2011-10-27 INCOME DATA 
AND HYPOTHETICAL PER CAPITA REAL INCOME GROWTH RATES
*/

gen Rbar_seats = ((L1.dlnr ///
+g_2F*L2.dlnr+g_2F^2*L3.dlnr+g_2F^3*L4.dlnr+g_2F^4*L5.dlnr ///
+g_2F^5*L6.dlnr +g_2F^6*L7.dlnr) / (1.0+g_2F ///
+g_2F^2+g_2F^3+g_2F^4+g_2F^5+g_2F^6) )   if preselectq==1 

* DLNR = -4
replace dlnr = -4 if qcount>260

gen Rbarmin4 = ///
(L1.dlnr ///
+g_2F*L2.dlnr+g_2F^2*L3.dlnr+g_2F^3*L4.dlnr+g_2F^4*L5.dlnr ///
+g_2F^5*L6.dlnr +g_2F^6*L7.dlnr) / (1.0+g_2F ///
+g_2F^2+g_2F^3+g_2F^4+g_2F^5+g_2F^6)  if qcount==264 

gen smin4 = b0_2F + bdlnr_2F*Rbarmin4 + bL8seats_2F*L8seats_inc

* DLNR = -2
replace dlnr = -2 if qcount>260

gen Rbarmin2 = ///
(L1.dlnr ///
+g_2F*L2.dlnr+g_2F^2*L3.dlnr+g_2F^3*L4.dlnr+g_2F^4*L5.dlnr ///
+g_2F^5*L6.dlnr +g_2F^6*L7.dlnr) / (1.0+g_2F ///
+g_2F^2+g_2F^3+g_2F^4+g_2F^5+g_2F^6) if qcount==264 

gen smin2 = b0_2F + bdlnr_2F*Rbarmin2 + bL8seats_2F*L8seats_inc
* DLNR = 0
replace dlnr = 0 if qcount>260

gen Rbar0 = ///
(L1.dlnr ///
+g_2F*L2.dlnr+g_2F^2*L3.dlnr+g_2F^3*L4.dlnr+g_2F^4*L5.dlnr ///
+g_2F^5*L6.dlnr +g_2F^6*L7.dlnr) / (1.0+g_2F ///
+g_2F^2+g_2F^3+g_2F^4+g_2F^5+g_2F^6)  if qcount==264 

gen s0 = b0_2F + bdlnr_2F*Rbar0 + bL8seats_2F*L8seats_inc



* DLNR = +2
replace dlnr = 2 if qcount>260

gen Rbarpls2 = ///
(L1.dlnr ///
+g_2F*L2.dlnr+g_2F^2*L3.dlnr+g_2F^3*L4.dlnr+g_2F^4*L5.dlnr ///
+g_2F^5*L6.dlnr +g_2F^6*L7.dlnr) / (1.0+g_2F ///
+g_2F^2+g_2F^3+g_2F^4+g_2F^5+g_2F^6) if qcount==264 

gen spls2 = b0_2F + bdlnr_2F*Rbarpls2 + bL8seats_2F*L8seats_inc


* DLNR = +4
replace dlnr = 4 if qcount>260

gen Rbarpls4 = ///
(L1.dlnr ///
+g_2F*L2.dlnr+g_2F^2*L3.dlnr+g_2F^3*L4.dlnr+g_2F^4*L5.dlnr ///
+g_2F^5*L6.dlnr +g_2F^6*L7.dlnr) / (1.0+g_2F ///
+g_2F^2+g_2F^3+g_2F^4+g_2F^5+g_2F^6)  if qcount==264 

gen spls4 = b0_2F + bdlnr_2F*Rbarpls4 + bL8seats_2F*L8seats_inc


* DLNR = +6
replace dlnr = 6 if qcount>260

gen Rbarpls6 = ///
(L1.dlnr ///
+g_2F*L2.dlnr+g_2F^2*L3.dlnr+g_2F^3*L4.dlnr+g_2F^4*L5.dlnr ///
+g_2F^5*L6.dlnr +g_2F^6*L7.dlnr) / (1.0+g_2F ///
+g_2F^2+g_2F^3+g_2F^4+g_2F^5+g_2F^6) if qcount==264 

gen spls6 = b0_2F + bdlnr_2F*Rbarpls6 + bL8seats_2F*L8seats_inc

format smin4 smin2 s0  spls2 spls4 spls6  %9.0f
format Rbarmin4 Rbarmin2 Rbar0  Rbarpls2 Rbarpls4 Rbarpls6 %9.1f


list  smin4  smin2 s0 spls2 spls4 spls6 if qcount==264, noobs clean
list  Rbarmin4 Rbarmin2 Rbar0 Rbarpls2 Rbarpls4 Rbarpls6 if qcount==264, noobs clean