Douglas A. Hibbs, Jr.

Downloadable Books, Articles, Working Papers and Lecture Slides in pdf format



Bread and Peace Voting in US Presidential Elections: What Impact Rising Inequality?, Lecture Slides, February 2014


The Bread, Incumbency and Balance Model of Seat Election Outcomes in the US House of Representatives, Lecture Slides, February 2014


The Bread and Peace Model: 2012 Presidential Election Postmortem”  PS: Political Science and Politics, January 2013, 41


Obama’s Re-election Prospects Under ‘Bread and Peace’ Voting in the 2012 US Presidential Election”  PS: Political Science and Politics, October 2012, 635-639

Unabridged version of “Obama’s Re-election Prospects Under ‘Bread and Peace Voting …”         StataProgramFile           StataDataFile


“The 2010 Midterm Election for the US House of Representatives” September 22 2010


“Tax Toleration and Tax Compliance: How Government Affects the Propensity of Firms to Enter the Unofficial Economy”  (with Violeta Piculescu), American Journal of Political Science, vol. 54, no.1, 2010, 18-33

Appendix of Proofs        StataMainProgramFile         StataMainDataFile          StataDataBuildProgramFile         StataInputDataFile1          StataInputDataFile2


“Implications of the ‘Bread and Peace’ Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election”  Public Choice, vol. 137, 2008, 1-10

StataProgramFile         StataDataFile


“Labor Market Regimes and the Effects of Monetary Policy”  (with N. Acocella and G. Di Bartolomeo), Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 30, 2008, 134-156


“The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election”  revised 18 April 2007 and rejected by the Quarterly Journal of Political Science


Brief Essay on “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”  for the One-Hundredth Anniversary issue of the American Political Science Review, vol. 100, November 2006, 670-71 (solicited because the original 1977 article ranked 2nd on the all-time list of most cited APSR articles)


“Voting and the Macroeconomy”  in B. Weingast and D. Wittman, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy, Oxford University Press, 2006, chapter 31:565-586


“Geography, Biogeography and Why Some Countries Are Rich and Others Poor”  (with Ola Olsson), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States. (PNAS), vol. 101, No. 10, 2004, 3715-3740

StataProgramFile        StataDataFile1        StataDataFile2       XLSDataFile   


“Biogeography and Long-Run Economic Development”  (with Ola Olsson), European Economic Review, vol. 49, 2005, 909-938

Data Appendix 


“The Politicization of Growth Theory”  Kyklos, vol. 54, 2001, 265-286


“Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections”  Public Choice, vol.104, Nos. 1-2, July 2000, 149-180


“Wage Compression and Productive Efficiency: Evidence for Sweden”  (with H. Locking), Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 18, No. 4, October 2000, 755-783


“Wage Compression, Wage Drift and Wage Inflation in Sweden”  (with H. Locking), Labour Economics, vol. 3, 1996, 109-141


“On Ad-Hominem Assertion and Scientific Discourse in the Study of Sociotropic and Egocentric Motivations of Political Attitudes and Behavior”  Scandinavian Political Studies, vol. 19, No. 3, 1996, 283-290


“The Partisan Theory of Macroeconomic Cycles:  More Theory and Evidence”  Economics and Politics, vol. 6, 1994, 1-23, translated to Japanese in Leviathan, vol. 12, 1993, 126-160


Solidarity or Egoism? The Economics of Sociotropic and Egocentric Political Behavior  [short book] Aarhus University Press, 1993


“Partisan Theory After Fifteen Years”  European Journal of Political Economy, vol. 8, 1992, 361-373


“Market Forces, Trade Union Ideology and Trends in Wage Dispersion”  Acta Sociologica, vol. 34, 1991, 89-102


“Wage Compression And Trade Union Action in Sweden”  in Inga Persson, ed. Generating Equality In The Welfare State -- The Swedish Experience, Oslo:  Norwegian University Press, 1990


“Wage Compression Under Solidarity Bargaining in Sweden”  FIEF Research Report, No. 30, Stockholm, 1990


“Income Distribution in the United States”  (with C. Dennis) American Political Science Review, June 1988, 467-490


The American Political Economy: Macroeconomics and Electoral Politics  [at]  Harvard University Press, 1987


The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies  [at Google books]  Harvard University Press, 1987


“Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policies and Outcomes in the United States”  American Economic Review, vol. 76, 1986, 66-70


“Inflation, Political Support and Macroeconomic Policy”  in Leon Lindberg and Charles Maier, eds.  The Politics of Inflation and Economic Stagnation. Washington:  Brookings Institution, 1985, 175-195


“Macroeconomic Performance, Macroeconomic Policy and Electoral Politics in Industrial Democracies”  in Samuel Huntington and Joseph Nye, eds., Global Dilemmas. University Press of America, Lanham, MD, 1985, 123-136


“Difference Equation Dynamics; Comment on Beck”  American Political Science Review, vol. 77, 1983, 447-451


“Performance Economique et Fonction de Popularite des Presidents Pompidiou et Giscard d'Estaing”  Revue d'Economie Politique, vol. 93, 1983, 44-61


“Public Concern About Inflation and Unemployment in the United States: Trends, Correlates and Political Implications”  in Robert E. Hall, ed., Inflation:  Causes and Effects, National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago Press, 1982, 211-231


“President Reagan's Mandate from the 1980 Elections:  A Shift to the Right?”  American Politics Quarterly, vol. 10, October 1982, 387-420


“On the Demand for Macroeconomic Outcomes: Macroeconomic Performance and Mass Political Support in the United States, Great Britain and Germany”  Journal of Politics, vol. 44, May 1982, 426-462


“The Dynamics of Political Support for American Presidents Among Occupational and Partisan Groups”  American Journal of Political Science, vol. 26, May 1982, 312-32


“Economic Outcomes and Political Support for British Governments Among the Occupational Classes”  American Political Science Review, vol. 76, June 1982, 259-79


“More on Economic Performance and Political Support in Britain”  American Political Science Review, vol. 76, June 1982, 282-284


“Economics and Politics in France:  Economic Performance and Mass Political Support for Presidents Pompidou and Giscard d'Estaing”  European Journal of Political Research, vol. 9, 1981, 133-45


“The Impact of Economic Performance on Electoral Support in Sweden, 1967-1978”  (with Henrik J. Madsen) Scandinavian Political Studies, vol. 4, 1981, 33-50


“Contemporary Political Economy: An Overview”  in Hibbs and Fassbender, eds. Contemporary Political Economy: Studies on The Interdependence of Politics and EconomicsContributions  to  Economic analysis No. 135, North-Holland, 1981


“Macroeconomic Performance and Mass Political Support in the United States and Great Britain”  (with N. Vasilatos) in Hibbs and Fassbender, eds. Contemporary Political Economy: Studies on The Interdependence of Politics and Economics, Contributions to Economic analysis No. 135, North-Holland, 1981


“Public Reactions to the Growth of Taxation and Government Expenditure”  (with Henrik Jess Madsen) World Politics, vol. 33, April 1981, 413-35


“The Mass Public and Macroeconomic Performance: The Dynamics of Public Opinion Toward Unemployment and Inflation”  American Journal of Political Science, vol. 23, November 1979, 705-31


“Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy: Reply to Payne”  American Political Science Review, vol. 73, March 1979, 185-190


“On the Political Economy of Long-Run Trends in Strike Activity”  British Journal of Political Science, vol. 8, April 1978, 153-75


“Trade Union Power, Wage Inflation, and Labor Militancy: A Comparative Analysis”  Center for International Studies, MIT, C1977-6 reprinted in Hibbs, The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies, Harvard University Press, 1987, chapter 3, 77-114


“Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy”  American Political Science Review, vol. 71, December 1977, 1467-87; reprinted in translation in Italian and Spanish


“On Analyzing the Effects of Policy Interventions: Box-Jenkins Vs. Structural Equation Models”  Sociological Methodology, vol. 8, 1977, 137-79


“Industrial Conflict in Advanced Industrial Societies”  American Political Science Review, vol. 70, December 1976, 1033-58


“Problems of Statistical Estimation and Causal Inference in Time-Series Regression Models”  Sociological Methodology, vol. 5, 1973-74, 252-308


Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis  [book]  John Wiley & Sons, 1973